We’ve been trained to think of presidential election years as the main event. The banners are bigger. The turnout swells. The stakes feel existential.
Midterms, by contrast, are the political equivalent of a preseason game – lower energy, lower turnout, and a nagging sense that the “real” decision can wait two more years.
But here’s what the donors know that you don’t: **Midterms are where your power is actually stolen, one low-turnout election at a time.**
Look no further than California’s 2026 governor’s race. According to a recent CalMatters analysis, outside groups – corporations, billionaires and special-interest PACs – have already spent **$79 million** on this contest. That’s more than double the amount spent through the entire 2018 general election when Gavin Newsom won his first term.
Who is writing those checks? Chevron. PG&E. Meta. Airbnb. The state Realtors association. The California Chamber of Commerce. These aren’t civic boosters. They are interests with billions on the line – and they are betting that you won’t show up to a midterm.
Why else would they pour $32 million into opposing Tom Steyer, who has vowed to break up PG&E’s monopoly? Why would the same oil giants turn around and spend $13 million to boost Xavier Becerra?
Because they know the math. In the last midterm, barely half of registered voters bothered to cast a ballot. In a presidential year, that number jumps to nearly 80 percent. That missing 30 percent is the difference between a government that answers to working families and a government that answers to corporate PACs.
And here is the part we forget: Midterms decide who holds the president accountable.
The governor you elect this year will veto or sign laws on housing, climate, electricity rates and taxes. That governor will be your state’s first line of defense against federal overreach – or its willing accomplice. Meanwhile, every State Assembly and State Senate seat is on the ballot. Those are the people who pass the laws the governor must then enforce.
When you skip a midterm, you don’t just miss a race. You hand the entire machinery of state government to a small, unrepresentative slice of the electorate – the very slice that special interests are best at mobilizing.
Consider the fate of San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. Tech billionaires poured nearly $22 million into outside groups supporting him. It wasn’t enough to overcome low name recognition. But in a truly low-turnout election, money often *is* enough. The only antidote is volume – enough of us voting that no single check can drown us out.
Presidential years get the glory. But midterms are where the real check on power lives – or dies.
Don’t wait for 2028. Look up your sample ballot today. Find your State Assembly and State Senate districts. Mark the midterm primary and general election on your calendar. Then tell three friends.
Because the billionaires and PACs are already spending. The only question is whether you’ll let them speak for you.
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